The Poles are going to get us all killed!
Poland and Lithuania are moving to force an all-out war between NATO and Russia
Here’s what’s in this article:
For Poland, the Past is Destiny— the once-glorious history of Poland in Central Europe
Understanding the Polish-Lithuanian Identity — How being “Polish” is like being “British”
The Poland-Ukraine relationship — “it’s complicated” — how the two “fraternal peoples” have created a “Poland from sea to sea”
The “Lublin Triangle” — A European Death Pact? — How a trilateral pact between Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine may endanger all of Europe
A trilateral “Mini-NATO” — Meet the US-trained tripartite military force that is ready to deploy to Ukraine
Making the Russians nervous — Putin is again sending very clear messages to Poland: “Stay out of Ukraine”
Conclusion — What we know, and what might happen
This is a long and complicated story, so we will start at the beginning …
For Poland, the Past is Destiny
Once upon a time, there was a state known as the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, formally known as the Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania.
The Commonwealth was established by the Union of Lublin in July 1569, and came to encompass large parts of what is today Poland, Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine.
With its population or some 7.5 million inhabitants and 815 thousand square kilometres, the Commonwealth was one of the largest states in Europe.
It was also highly heterogeneous. Its two main parts were Poland proper, usually referred to as “the Crown” — to which the Ukraine had been transferred on the eve of the Union of Lublin — and the second — junior — part was the Grand Duchy of Lithuania.
This “Republic of Two Nations” had a good run, but was eventually whittled away to nothing through a series of partitions:
The First Partition in 1772 and the Second Partition in 1793 greatly reduced the state’s size. The Commonwealth was partitioned out of existence in the Third Partition of 1795.
The Polish Dream Lives On
What befell the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was not an uncommon occurrence in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) during the Middle Ages.
Unlike Western Europe, the CEE region has no massive mountain ranges and mighty oceans to help define and defend a nation’s borders, such is the case with the UK, France, Spain and Italy. Central Europe is a flat region with easily navigable waterways and broad steppes that facilitate the flow of people, goods — and armies.
Historically speaking, conflicts such as the 30 Years’ War often led to the emergence of new nations and the disappearance of others, as countries were broken up or subsumed into other entities.
For modern-day Poles and Lithuanians, however, the heyday of the Commonwealth seems once again within grasp.
Understanding the Polish-Lithuanian Identity
In order to fully appreciate the grave danger currently posed by Polish designs on Western Ukraine, we should first examine what is known as the “Polish-Lithuanian Identity”.
A Britain in Central Europe?
In his book, The United States and Poland, historian Piotr Stefan Wandycz explains that, under the Commonwealth, the word “Polish” came to have an expansive application:
The term Poland and Polish began to be increasingly used to denote the entire commonwealth. the name transcending and not replacing the term Lithuanian. Had another term been coined equivalent to British, which comprises English, Scottish, and Welsh, some of the confusion between Polish proper and Polish in the sense of state-nationality would have been avoided. In addition to the Poles and Lithuanians., the Commonwealth comprised Ukrainians and Belorussians (whose lands were described collectively as Rus’).
Moreover, according to Wikipedia, the relationship between Lithuania and Poland came to resemble — to some extent — that between Great Britain and Ireland or Scotland:
Today’s Republic of Poland considers itself a successor to the Commonwealth, and stresses the common history of both nations, whereas the Republic of Lithuania, re-established at the end of World War I, saw the participation of the Lithuanian state in the old Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth mostly in a negative light and idealised the pre-Commonwealth Duchy, although this attitude has been changing recently.
The Wikipedia article ends with what seems to be a euphemistic assessment:
Modern Polish-Lithuanian relations have improved, but their respective views of history can still differ.
A “thousand year heritage”
Indeed, Poland today seems to lay claim to the whole legacy of the original “great empire” defined by the Union of Lublin in 1569. In fact, the preamble of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland of 1997 contains the following text:
“Recalling the best traditions of the First and the Second Republic, Obliged to bequeath to future generations all that is valuable from our over one thousand years’ heritage…”
No doubt this “1000 year heritage” is the same one that the (recently rewritten) Ukrainian school textbooks also reference.
The two countries do, after all, share a history.
The Poland-Ukraine relationship — “it’s complicated”
the Kingdom of Poland. It seems that Poland has always looked at Ukraine was “Kresy”, or “Borderlands”.
The Polish word kresy translates to “okrainy” in Russian, which is where the expression “The Ukraine” in English came from.
About “The” Ukraine
There was a reason why we used the definite article for centuries.
Since the fall of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, however, Ukraine’s history has been characterised by a series of wars over its territory. Parts of modern day Ukraine were subject to Polonisation and conversion to Roman Catholicism (in the West) and other parts underwent Russification and the imposition of the Russian Orthodox Church (in the East).
In fact, the territory now known as Ukraine played a major role in Poland–Russia relations, which, according to Wikipedia, “have a long and often turbulent history, dating to the late Middle Ages, when the Kingdom of Poland and Kievan Rus’ and later the Grand Duchy of Moscow struggled over control of their borders “ — i.e., Ukraine.
The article continues:
Over centuries, there have been several Polish–Russian Wars, with Poland once occupying Moscow and later Russia controlling much of Poland in the 19th as well as in the 20th century, leading to strained relations and multiple Polish attempts at re-acquiring independence.
The “interwar” period following WWI was when Polish and Ukrainian independence movements joined forces to fight the Soviets. Although the conflict is known as the Polish-Soviet War, or Polish-Bolshevik War, a main objective of the Polish leaders at that time was to secure independence for Ukraine.
Unfortunately, the war ended with the Treaty of Riga in 1921, where Poland “abandoned its Ukrainian ally”. The Soviet-Polish frontier agreed at Riga divided both Belarus and Ukraine between Poland and the Soviet Union.
Bandera’s two enemies
The betrayal at Riga might explain why Stepan Bandera’s Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) saw not just Russia, but also Poland, as their sworn enemies. The deal at Riga gifted his home town of Lviv to Poland.
The OUN and its military wing the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), carried out a series of assassinations of high-ranking Polish officials during the 1930’s, and they allied with Nazi Germany to conduct massacres of Polish civilians in WWII.
But although the Ukrainian nationalists chafed under Polish rule, they always knew that their real enemies were the Russians, and this hatred would, ultimately, serve to unite Poles and Ukrainians decades later.
1992: A Treaty of “good neighbourliness”
Shortly after the fall of the Soviet Union and the independence of both Ukraine and Poland, the two countries signed a treaty to “put the past behind them” and ensure a close cooperative relationship.
The “Treaty between the Polish Republic and Ukraine on Good-Neighborliness, Friendly Relations, and Cooperation”, signed on 18 May 1992, formed a “strategic partnership” between Ukraine and Poland, which was the first country to formally recognise the independence of Ukraine.
But that agreement was only the beginning.
“Dual citizenship” for Poles and Ukrainians already exists
As a major step towards a “union” of the two countries, Ukrainian President Zelensky and Polish President Duda in 2022 agreed a new law, the “Act on the Special Legal Status of Polish Citizens in Ukraine” which provides for special rights and freedoms for Polish citizens on an equal footing with Ukrainian citizens.
This Act reciprocates the “special status” afforded to Ukrainian citizens in Poland under that country’s 2022 “Act on Assistance for Ukrainian Citizens”.
These two acts essentially grant a de facto dual citizenship to Poles and Ukrainians, allowing them visa-free stays, automatic right to employment, free education, health care and other rights usually afforded only to citizens.
Poland’s proposed “peacekeeping mission” in Ukraine
It should also be noted that, immediately following Russia’s launch of their Special Military Operation, Poland proposed sending “peacekeeping troops” into Western Ukraine.
According to Reuters, Poland’s ruling party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski announced the idea of a peacekeeping mission during a trip to the Ukrainian capital Kiev in March 2022.
“I think that it is necessary to have a peace mission — NATO, possibly some wider international structure — but a mission that will be able to defend itself, which will operate on Ukrainian territory,” Jaroslaw Kaczynski said during the conference, which was broadcast on Polish television.
The Poles are serious. President Duda reiterated Poland’s proposal at the recent Vilnius NATO summit in July 2023.
Why Poland supports Ukraine
As mentioned above, the Ukrainians and the Poles are united by a common hatred — and fear — of Russia. But their relationship goes beyond the simple Realpolitik dictum of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”.
I believe that, while Poland is insisting that Ukraine recognise the atrocities of the OUN-UPA in WWII, which the Polish parliament officially declared a genocide in 2016, the ties that bind the two peoples together are stronger than those that would push them apart.
For Poland, I believe that the modern day affinity and unity with Ukraine goes beyond simply having a common enemy. In fact, I think it has more to do with the great national dream, the burning ambition, to rebuild the once mighty Polish state, to reconstitute the Polish empire that once dominated central and eastern Europe.
I agree with other observers that the Polish enthusiasm for “taking on Russia” today is all about reconstituting the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
The “Lublin Triangle” — A European Death Pact?
For Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine, the recapture of past glory starts with reconstituting the Commonwealth, just without Belarus.
The three countries have formed an organisation called the “Lublin Triangle”, which Wikipedia describes as a regional alliance “for the purposes of strengthening mutual military, cultural, economic and political cooperation and supporting Ukraine’s integration into the European Union and NATO”.
The Lublin Triangle is meant to refer directly to the aforementioned Union of Lublin which established the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, and thus embodies the imperial aspirations of both Poland and Lithuania by harkening back to a time when they were major players in the European geopolitical landscape.
The three countries comprising the L3 group are all virulently anti-Russian and are pushing more than any others towards an expanded confrontation and conflict with Russia.
The organisation poses a threat to peace because it also enjoys the support of the US, including prestigious Neocon think tanks such as the Hudson Institute.
In fact, Dalibor Rohac, a senior fellow at the Neoconservative American Enterprise Institute, even wrote an article in Foreign Policy magazine calling for the Commonwealth to be reanimated:
The idea of a new Polish-Lithuanian “union” that has the blessing of the US Neocon establishment is scary enough — but add a combined military force, and it gets even scarier.
Joint Declarations of historical solidarity — and bellicosity
In 2021, the “Lublin Triangle presidents” of Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania signed a “Joint Declaration” to ensure the “integrity of Ukraine”.
Polish President Duda stated:
“Our position as the presidents of the Lublin Triangle is clear: the security of Ukraine is a fundamental issue… we must we not allow any effective attack to be carried out against Ukraine, but above all we must do everything possible to prevent such an attack”.
President Zelensky, however, was more direct:
“Our common task is to stop the Russian threat and protect Europe from aggressive Russian policies. Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania are in the vanguard of this resistance, like no other country we understand the pressing need to consolidate our joint efforts, we understand how important it is now to speak with one voice,” he said.
Celebrating a 160-year-old “glorious defeat”
Two years later, in January 2023, the three leaders came together again to sign another “Joint Declaration” on the occasion of the Second Lublin Triangle Summit.
Zelensky issued a formal statement on the declaration, which started with a reference to the meeting taking place “on the eve of the 160th anniversary of our joint January Uprising (1863–1864) against tyranny and oppression”.
The historical reference was echoed on the website of the Polish Government, which called the January Uprising “the largest armed struggle for independence of the peoples of the former [Polish-Lithuanian] Commonwealth against Russian rule”:
Just as 160 years ago and today, the nations living on the lands of the former Republic must defend themselves against Russia’s military, political, and economic aggression. The Uprising’s legacy is still relevant, as reflected in the Joint Declaration by the Presidents of Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania at the Second Lublin Triangle Summit in Lviv on 11 January.
It should be noted, however, that according to Wikipedia, the January Uprising was “an insurrection principally in Russia’s Kingdom of Poland that was aimed at the restoration of the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth. It began on 22 January 1863 and continued until the last insurgents were captured by the Russian forces in 1864”.
I suppose that Poland sees the conflict in Ukraine as a chance at the “restoration” that failed 160 years ago. Certainly, looking at the photo below, it was Polish President Duda who seemed most pleased with the proceedings.
Fighting the “Culture War” — together against Russia
In May 2023, the Ministers of Culture of Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine signed the declaration of intent on trilateral cooperation in the Lublin Triangle format.
The signatories of the Declaration will work together to suspend the Russian Federation from international organizations, committees, and programmes in the fields of culture and information policy, including UNESCO.
But there was also a positive side:
Lithuania, Ukraine and Poland will put joint effort to promote common cultural heritage and history, to foster cooperation between cultural institutions and experts, and provide more opportunities for young culture professionals.
This sort of cultural cooperation seems to be aimed at restoring the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth from a cultural angle. Certainly, it seems in line with promoting the idea of a common identity — sort of like establishing what it means to be British.
It seems that through the tsunami of agreements, declarations, treaties and summits, there is only one conclusion to be reached:
A trilateral “Mini-NATO”
The formation of the Lublin Triangle also entailed the official creation of the “Lithuanian–Polish–Ukrainian Brigade”, or “”LITPOLUKRBRIG”.
This combined military force is, in its most dangerous capacity, the joint military force that underpins the “mutual defense” cooperation agreements signed by the three countries as part of the Lublin Triangle initiative.
The Brigade has also recruited US and UK military advisors and trainers, who refer to the unit as the “Trilateral Brigade” and are working with the force in various NATO exercises.
The Brigade HQ is in Lublin and is staffed by a blend of army personnel: 5 Lithuanians, 58 Poles, and 18 Ukrainians. The HQ can plan, organise, command, and control approximately 4,500 LITPOLUKRBRIG troops for international military operations, according to Wikipedia.
The article also notes the unit’s deep ties to the US military and educational establishment:
Finally, the success of the Trilateral Brigade has led two researchers — Lt Col Jahara Matisek (US Naval War College) and Prof. Will Reno (Northwestern University) — to contend in 2022 that this unit provides a comparative advantage and flexible options against Russia, and is a model for future security cooperation between NATO and non-NATO militaries.
Indeed, the two wrote an article in praise of the Brigade for the Modern War Institute at West Point, noting that the trilateral unit was already integrated into the Joint Military Training Group–Ukraine, part of the US 7th Army.
“Two Feet in NATO, One Foot Out”
Describing the Trilateral Brigade as having “Two Feet in NATO, One Foot Out”, the authors note:
The Trilateral Brigade occupies a gray space. While multinational units are not uncommon…a joint unit composed of NATO members (Polish and Lithuanian) and non-NATO military personnel (Ukrainian) is obviously rare. This presents both opportunities as well as risks that must be managed in order to take advantage of those opportunities.
Born as a result of Maidan
The Trilateral Brigade came about partly as a result of the Maidan coup d’état in Kiev in 2014. As Matisek and Reno note:
The Lithuanian and Polish relationships with Ukraine came to a pause in 2010 when Viktor Yanukovych assumed Ukraine’s presidency, which strained many ties to the US and neighbouring NATO countries…After pro-Western leaders returned to power in Kyiv in the wake of the Maidan Revolution, the Trilateral Brigade was formed in late 2014.
Making the Russians nervous
According to Russia’s Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin, the Lublin Triangle’s joint military force will most likely move into the territories of Western Ukraine soon.
In a meeting with Russia’s state Security Council on July 21, 2023, Naryshkin explained:
“Polish leadership is intensifying its mood to maintain control in the western territories of Ukraine, the western regions, by deploying its troops there. Such a step, as one of the options, is planned to be formalised as the fulfilment of allied obligations within the framework of the Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian initiative in the field of security — this is the so-called Lublin Triangle”.
So now we see how this will work. Poland and Lithuania will deploy troops to Ukraine NOT under the auspices of NATO, but under the aegis of their trilateral Lublin Triangle treaty obligations.
Putin reacts
At the same meeting of his Security Council, Vladimir Putin commented on the Trilateral Brigade, with his own ominous warning:
“This is not about a group of mercenaries…but about a well-organised, equipped regular military unit to be used for operations in Ukraine, including to allegedly ensure the security of today’s Western Ukraine — actually, to call things by their true name, for the subsequent occupation of these territories. The outlook is clear: in the event Polish forces enter, say, Lvov or other Ukrainian territories, they will stay there, and they will stay there for good”.
For most observers, Putin’s declaration that the Poles and Lithuanians invading Western Ukraine would “stay there for good” meant that they would, in effect, be buried there.
Putin continued:
“The Polish authorities, who are nurturing their revanchist ambitions, hide the truth from their people. The truth is that the Ukrainian cannon fodder is no longer enough for the West. That is why it is planning to use other expendables — Poles, Lithuanians and everyone else they do not care about.
I can tell you that this is an extremely dangerous game, and the authors of such plans should think about the consequences”.
“SHOULD THINK ABOUT THE CONSEQUENCES”.
A “NATO-Adjacent” organisation such as the Lublin Triangle poses great dangers for escalation of the current conflict in Ukraine as they seek to precipitate a crisis that will force NATO members such as the US to engage directly with Russia militarily in Europe.
Conclusion
Given the overwhelming abundance of evidence, it must be concluded that Poland is looking to control if not outright annex a large swath of Western Ukraine.
Whether this is motivated by economic, military/security or simply romantic historical forces is yet to be clear — it could be a combination of all three. However, the frequent references to the long defunct Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth would indicate that, for Poland, 1795 was not so long ago.
Indeed, Americans who still celebrate their independence of 1776 should have some sympathy for romanticising the past and the great national heroes of a bygone era.
But what doesn’t track is the ultimate goal of the Poles’ efforts, and the timing of same.
The Poles have a choice
Poland seems to want to build back its place in Europe specifically at the direct cost of the Russians, but the Poles and their little brothers in Lithuania do have a choice.
As I have outlined in my article, “This is How Ukraine Ends”, Poland could engage Russia in negotiations and agree with Putin to allow Warsaw to take over the lands of Western Ukraine that were historically Polish.
Putin knows that they want this land — desperately, and he really has no use for it. During his recent Security Council meeting, he remarked:
“As for the Polish leaders, they probably hope to form a coalition under the NATO umbrella in order to directly intervene in the conflict in Ukraine and to bite off as much as possible, to “regain,” as they see it, their historical territories, that is, modern-day Western Ukraine”.
But he went on to confirm that Western Ukraine is not a place he wants:
“Regarding the policy of the Ukrainian regime, it is none of our business. If they want to relinquish or sell off something…that’s their business. We will not interfere”, he said.
Once the current regime in Kiev is toppled, Poland could negotiate such an annexation in return for helping to rebuild and reconstruct Ukraine.
The danger, however, is that the Poles will not wait to negotiate, and that they will try to intervene militarily, perhaps trying to draw NATO into the fight.
If they decide to play that “extremely dangerous game”, as Putin called it, then — just as in 1864, it may well be the Russians who again dash the hopes of the Poles.
Worse yet, if a Polish military intervention does pull all of NATO into the fight, it could easily escalate into World War III.
End.